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Latest FAO rice forecast

The FAO predicts world rice production at 749 mtons, only 0.9m tons less than in its latest forecast - This seems too optimistic

In its latest rice report, the FAO revised it production forecast for world rice production down by 0.7m tons to 749.1m tons. This revision is surprisingly small, given that since the FAO's last rice report in April, had forcasted an El Nino event of considerable strength in 2015/2016.

In addition, the important rice producing countries India, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines are reporting droughts. Yet the FAO production forecasts for these countries were lowered only by 3.0%, 0.3%, 0.1% and 1.4% respectively.

If, as we believe, world rice production will fall in 2015, rice inventories are likely to fall more than by 1.5% as predicted by the FAO because governments are likely to release stocks in order to bolster supply and prevent prices from increasing. Rising rice prices are feared by every South Asian government since they can trigger social unrest.

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